Interview with Cheng Shi, chief economist of ICBC: Economics is like a window, which can look at the world from a unique perspective

  • 内容
  • 评论
  • 相关


Every time a reporter Zhang Shoulin is News informationedited and edited by Liao Dan    

On December 6, the 14th China Financial Development Forum hosted by the Daily Economic News is about to open.At that time, Cheng Shi, the chief economist of ICBC International, will give a speech at the main forum to tell the global economic turning point and the new stories of Chinese economy.

Recently, Cheng Shi accepted an exclusive interview with the Daily Economic News reporter (hereinafter referred to as "NBD") before the meeting, which made in -depth analysis of global economic hot issues.

Cheng Shi pointed out that after more than 40 years of reform and opening up, China's economic strength has achieved qualitative improvement, but structural problems have accumulated.The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the Central Political Bureau Meeting in July this year and the October Central Financial Work Conference have made strategic deployment of progress with the times and solving the problem of the card point.In the process of optimizing the transformation, I believe that the Chinese economy will climb overlap and gradually break through the card point in the process of modernization of Chinese -style to achieve high -quality development.

ICBC International Chief Economist Cheng Shi Shi Shi Source: Interviewee Confer

NBD: At present, the Chinese and American economies are facing downward pressure. Why do you have a risk of shrinking and suffering from inflation?

Cheng Shi:At present, the Chinese and American economies are facing downward pressure, but one inflation pressure is particularly prominent, and the risk of contraction cannot be ignored.This actually reflects the fact that the global economy is in a sensitive and complex macro state:

On the one hand, under the impact of the impact of supply, the overall state of the abnormal state of stagflation from 2022-2023, the stagnation of economic growth and the pressure of unstable prices exist at the same time. It is worth noting that the focus of pressure faced by different countries in the background of the global stagnation isDifferent, the focus of the US economy is more reflected in the "swelling" side. The focus of China's economy is more reflected in the "stagnation" side, so the macro state is different, but the background is common;

On the other hand, the global economy shows the characteristics of differentiation in the process of gradual recovery. There is a certain dislocation in the period of the period of the Sino -US economy, and the economic operation has personalized characteristics. The United States is a developed country and China is an emerging market country.It is normal to face different types of pressure.

The specific reasons can be explained from the following aspects:

From the perspective of supply and demand, there are differences in supply and demand relationship between China and the United States.In the United States, due to the increase in government expenditure and the tight labor market, demand exceeds supply, promotes rising prices, and forms inflation pressure. In China, due to weak expectations and insufficient confidence, the internal demand is in the process of slow recovery.The pressure always exists, and the supply of durable goods and fixed asset investment is relatively excess, causing a certain contraction risk (but it does not constitute a rigorous definition of contraction state).

From a macro policy, the monetary policy of China and the United States is also different.The Federal Reserve adopted a loose monetary policy before March 2022 to stimulate economic growth by reducing interest rates and purchasing bonds. Excessive liquidity exceeded the potential growth level that led to lagging inflation pressure.In contrast, the Central Bank of China pays more attention to stable monetary policy, and resolutely does not engage in large water irrigation to avoid risk of inflation, so the total price level is more stable.

From the perspective of trade dimensions, foreign demand is weak.China is one of the world's largest exporters. When the global economy is still in the recovery cycle, weak foreign demand orders have declined and the cost of upstream supply chain is raised as a whole, middle and lower reaches will maintain market share by lowering prices.In addition, weak external demand has led to a relatively decrease in the RMB flowing into the domestic market, weakening the level of inflation.

NBD: In your opinion, what are the more prominent card points in our current economic cycle?

Cheng Shi:I think it mainly includes the following aspects:

First, external environmental uncertainty: The current global economy is facing complex situation evolution, including trade friction, geopolitical tensions, etc. These factors have brought certain pressure and uncertainty to the stable development of the Chinese economy.

Second, internal structural problems: In the process of transformation and upgrading, the Chinese economy is facing structural contradictions and problems.For example, there are certain imbalances, basic innovation capabilities in the industrial structure, have to be improved, and the labor and demand matching of the labor market is relatively insufficient. These structural problems have suppressed the full -factor productivity that promotes long -term economic development.

Third, the problem of insufficient total demand: It is mainly reflected in the insufficient consumer demand. The current economic activities are still in the recovery period, and the final consumption expenditure level of some consumer fields is still weak.

Fourth, the gap between urban and rural development: The problem of imbalance between China's economic development is still prominent, and problems such as urban and rural development gaps and regional development unbalance restrict the overall level of economic development.

Fifth, environmental pollution and sustainable development: While the Chinese economy is developing rapidly, it also faces the challenges of environmental pollution and sustainable development.Disposal such as air pollution, shortage of water resources, and ecological environment destruction need to be effectively resolved to ensure the long -term sustainable development of the economy.

In summary, after more than 40 years of reform and opening up, China's economic strength has achieved qualitative improvement, but structural problems have accumulated. The current external situation has undergone systemic changes.The card points in the inside and outside circulation are becoming more and more prominent.

In view of this, the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the Central Political Bureau Conference in July and the October Central Financial Work Conference have made strategic deployment of progress with the times and solving the problem of card points.In the process of continuous optimization of resource allocation directions, I believe that the Chinese economy will climb overlap, and gradually break through the card point in the process of Chinese -style modernization to achieve high -quality development.

NBD: In your opinion, how can the macro policy promote the economic recovery process, how will the monetary policy and fiscal policy match better results?

Cheng Shi:How to mix monetary policy and fiscal policy to achieve policy utility is the eternal problem faced by all policy makers. For China, strengthening policy matching and optimizing the effectiveness of the policy in a complex environment requires three overall plans, that is, coordinating domestic domestic domestic planning, that is, coordinating the country in ChinaTwo international situations, coordinate the two areas of economic and financial, and coordinate the two dimensions of short -term and long -term.Specifically:

First of all, the tightness of the monetary policy matches the flexibility of fiscal policy: The tightening of monetary policy can be achieved by adjusting interest rates and deposit reserve ratios.When economic recovery needs to be stimulated, monetary policy can take loose measures, such as reducing interest rates and increasing monetary supply to promote investment and consumption.At the same time, fiscal policies can adopt corresponding flexibility, increase overall demand by increasing government expenditure and tax cuts, and further promote economic growth.The current Chinese economy is still in the recovery stage, maintaining the monetary and financial environment, and the need for directional credit to support SMEs.Synchronous, in the process of the trend of interest rate levels, fiscal needs to play a leading role. The central government's restoration of the total demand for fiscal expenditure stimulus is still the key to economic boost.

Second, the coordination of monetary policy and fiscal policy: Monetary policy and fiscal policy should be coordinated to achieve the greatest effect of economic growth.In terms of rhythm, the implementation of monetary policy and fiscal policy needs to be closely coordinated.Avoid that monetary fiscal policies are not synchronized.

Third, the structural cooperation of monetary policy and fiscal policy:In addition to the adjustment of total demand, monetary policy and fiscal policy can also be combined to promote economic growth through structural reforms.For example, monetary policy can promote innovation and technological upgrades by providing low -cost financing support.At the same time, fiscal policies can support the development of emerging industries and innovative enterprises by providing tax discounts, subsidies, etc.

Finally, the stability of monetary policy and fiscal policy: In the process of formulating macro policies, monetary policy and fiscal policy need to maintain stability and avoid frequent adjustments and interference.A stable policy environment can enhance market confidence, increase the expectations of investors and entrepreneurs, thereby promoting economic growth.

NBD: You write articles on weekdays and talk about art, life, life, etc. from the perspective of economics. It seems that you can express his opinions in any area of economics. How do you understand economics?

Cheng Shi:Personal superficial insights: On the one hand, economics, as a social science that studies "how to choose and decide", it provides a sense of thinking that is both reasonable and interesting, just like a window, through through a window, through through a window, through through a window, through a window, through through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through the window, through a window, through the window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through the window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through the window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through the window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window, through a window.This window can look at the world with a unique perspective, so economics methods can be applied to many fields, expanding vision and enlightenment;

On the other hand, economics is just a social science. Its function is very limited. Therefore, when using economics thinking to examine non -economic issues, we must be humble and cautious, to know the boundaries, and the limitations of the border.

In the past ten years, I have written a lot of "resonance articles" in economics, music, movies, and life, and have also published several related books. The reason I do is mainly to use a reader to hear and enjoy it.Easy -to -understand ways to show the world of economics and interpret various economic phenomena. I believe that the more popular economics knowledge, the more the opportunity to reduce the asymmetry and professional asymmetry in the economy and society, and then help all economic subjects moreMake economic choices rationally, thereby reducing possible economic and financial risks, and improving the economic well -being of the entire society.

In other words, these cross -border efforts are all attempts for economic and financial science popularization. It is not enough to do it. I need to continue to work hard. This is what I will do in my spare time in my life, which is interesting and more meaningful.

版权声明:如非注明,此文章为本站原创文章,转载请注明: 转载自Express information website

本文链接地址: http://www.kjpartnersllc.com/post/20240213/8a596492.html