According to the latest data recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics of the Russia,时事热点 despite the impact of international sanctions, the Russian economy has returned to near the pre -war level earlier this year.Western news agencies and analysts currently agree with this.Vladimir Putin uses the tomb of John McCain as the stage, claiming that Russia is not just a "gas station", and his presidential economic adviser Maxim Oleshkin emphasizes that Europe is against Moscow to MoscowThe economic loss suffered more than Russia itself.However, not all situations are bright; as the inflation rate climbed to 7.5%, millions of Russian people paid a heavy price for the rapid growth of the military industry.Under the signs of overheating economy, the Russian economy is expected to slow down and even decline in 2024.
According to the Macroeconomic Analysis and the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short · Term ForeCasting, after the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Western sanctions have fallen into a decline in Russia, but at least in some indicators, it only took 10 months to take only 10 months.The economy has rebounded, and the decline ended in August.Although TSMAKP may not be the most objective think tank (its director Demitri Beloolousov is the brother of the first Deputy Prime Minister Andre Bueluusov), Russia's GDP in Russia was No. 2023 in 2023In the third quarter, it really increased by 5.5%, an increase of 3.2%in the first 10 months of this year.The GDP in 2023 increased by 1.1%over the same period of 2021. Before that, Ukraine was fully invaded, and Western countries also implemented so -called severe sanctions.
Russia's performance exceeds the predictions of the Ministry of Economic Development and the Central Bank of China. They have stated in spring that this year's GDP growth rate will not exceed 2%.Now, even Bloomberg Economic Analysts say that the growth rate in 2023 will exceed 3%.
This week, Putin announced a victory that Russia's annual GDP growth will exceed 3.5%."The president explained:" Any people with mind will agree, this is a good indicator of the Russian economy.
The soaring economic output this year is noticeable, but these indicators reflect the recovery of the country from the trough, such as recovering after the new crowns in 2021.In other words, the soaring GDP in Russia is not evidence of sustainable development that Putin has said.
From subsidy recovery to overheating economy
Although Russia's manufacturing output flourished, from January to October 2023, the total revenue contribution of the oil and gas industries to the federal budget still accounted for about one -third.Indeed, the output of oil and natural gas decreased by 2%and 5%, mainly because Russia agreed to reduce supply in the agreement with OPEC.Former Central Bank Vice Chairman Sergei Alexenko believes that the structure of Russia's economy relying on oil and natural gas exports actually helps to resist international sanctions and support the Kremlin's war in Ukraine.
The federal deficit in 2023 is expected to account for only 1%of GDP -only half of the initial estimate -although the appropriation of military industry has increased significantly.At the same time, the annual expenditure of "national defense" and "national security" is expected to exceed 6.2%of GDP, and it may rise to nearly 8%by 2024, accounting for nearly 40%of all budget expenditures.
Russia through the National Fortune Fund reserves (currently estimated to be 6.94 trillion rubles, 4.6%of GDP) and government loans to provide funds for deficits.As of November 1, the total soft loan had reached 1.1 trillion rubles, accounting for 7%of GDP, and exceeding 14%of the Russian bank credit portfolio.State -owned large -scale enterprises (including Russian Railway Corporation, Afva Airlines, Russian International Airlines and Russian Astronautics) have begun to actively lobby to obtain preferential loan conditions.
Central Bank President Elvila Nobei Ulinna warned that the government has caused inflation through more and more borrowing through subsidies, forcing the central bank to maintain a higher key interest rate.In November, the inflation rate reached 7.5%throughout the year and did not show signs of slowing down.The economic growth of Russia is slowing down.According to the forecast of the Central Bank, the economic recovery will reach its peak in the third quarter of 2023.
Russia's manner problem
Rufu Bank analyst Stanislav Murashov pointed out that industrial capacity and labor shortage will restrict the development of Russian manufacturing.In addition, the further increase in key interest rates will slow down wage growth and make corporate technology upgrades more complicated.Bloomberg Economist Alexander Isaakov predicts that in the case of approaching full employment, the labor force will be reorganized in various industries, prompting workers in buildings, retail and finance that are affected by rising interest rates to military enterprises.
More than 85%of companies are facing the problem of employee shortage, especially the scarcity of technical workers.In the first nine months of 2023, the salary increased by 13.2%in name, and the unemployment rate dropped to 2.9%(the lowest in the history of the post -Soviet Union), but these data masked a serious problem: compared with 2021, labor productivity fell 3.6 3.6%Is the largest since 2009.Technical workers escaped from war and political oppression to move abroad, coupled with hundreds of thousands of people participating in the war and killed or injured in the conflict, which led Russia's labor reserves to reduce about one million workers.
Although the Ukraine War is still the primary task of the government, funds to develop Russian human capital through education and medical care will be relatively reduced.The longer this situation lasts, the harder the Kremlin is to resolve the complex "civil" problem, and the easier it is to delay war.
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