Recently,Popular events the European and American markets are betting on interest rate cuts for central banks. The global bond market is rising, and the stock market is innovative.
The European Central Bank cuts interest rates for 160 base points next year?
On Wednesday, local time, the market has increased the betting expectations of the European Central Bank's interest rate cuts.At present, the European Central Bank will be fulfilled six times next year, 25 base points each time, and a total of 160 basis points at a cumulative rate of interest rate cuts during the year. This will reduce the key interest rate of the euro zone to 2.5%by the end of next year.
Although European Central Bank officials are still warning inflation risks, inflation data has approached 2%of the goal, which means that the European Central Bank may not need to raise interest rates again.
The market also predicts,The European Central Bank will start interest rate cuts as early as the first quarter of next year, with a probability of nearly 90%.
If the above -mentioned expectations are established, the European Central Bank will become the first interest rate cut next year in the main central bank and will launch the most radical loose cycle.
As far as the Fed is concerned, the overall inflation rate of the United States has slowed to 3.2%. The market is expected to cut interest rates at May next year, and a total of 125 basis points will be reduced during the year.
At the same time, the German bank economist headed by Mark Wall said in a report: "Given the latest inflation data and the official comments, we are worried that we are too cautious. The risks now are earlier and larger interest rate cuts.And the European Central Bank is more capable of decuming with the Federal Reserve. "
Deutsche Bank is currently estimated,The European Central Bank's first interest rate cut will be advanced from June to April. At the same time, there will be "major interest rate cut risks" in March. By the end of the year, a total of 150 basis points will be reduced.
However, some analysts warned that the market was too optimistic.Bellaide's strategist said that they "saw these risks of desperation."Goldman Sachs Group's strategist recommends betting on options to deal with excessive interest rate pricing.
Stephanie Niven, the investment group manager of Ninety One, said that in view of the governor of the central banks of various countries, the euro zone is more likely to cut interest rates at the end of next year.
Niven also said: "Europe is facing cyclical and structural challenges at the same time, which has led to a significant fluctuation in market expectations for the European Central Bank."
"Eagle King" also turns pigeons
European Central Bank officials have never wanted the market to be too optimistic, and prematurely bet on interest rate cuts, but in the recent speeches, they faintly reveal the signal of "Songkou".
On Tuesday, it was regarded as the "Eagle King" Isabel Schnabel in the European Central Bank.In view of the "significant" reduction of inflation, the European Central Bank may not raise interest rates further.
Just one month ago, Schnabel also insisted that interest rate hikes are still a choice, because the "last mile" of anti -inflation may be the most difficult.
However, after three consecutive inflation data unexpectedly cooled, she changed her position. It was also the above change that caused the market to increase the betting of interest rate cuts.
When asked if she changed her point of view, she quoted a famous saying of economist Kanes: "When the facts change, I will change my mind, what will you do?"
However, there are also some officials who insist on.German Bank of -German Governor Joachim Nagel said that the data of November did not change his thoughts, and interest rate hikes were still possible.
The European Central Bank governor Lagarde, the President of the French Central Bank and Greek President of Greece all said that although the market expects early spring to reduce interest rates, interest rates in the next few quarters will remain stable.
Martins Kazaks, the governor of Latvia, said on Wednesday that interest rate cuts may not happen in the first half of next year.However, he warned that if the economic prospects change, "our interest rate decision may change."
Peter Kazimir, a member of the European Central Bank Management Commission, agrees that Schnabel does not need to raise interest rates, but he also said that "it is expected to cut interest rates in the first quarter of next year to science fiction"Essence
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