The market bet on the European Central Bank will cut interest rates of 150 basis points next year.

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Zhitong Finance APP was informed that traders are increasing the betting on the European Central Bank will relax the monetary policy in 2024,hot topic because policy makers have hinted that they may have taken sufficient tightening measures to return inflation to inflation level.

At present, the market completely digests the expectations of the European Central Bank will cut interest rates 6 times and a total of 150 basis points in 2024, which will reduce the interest rate of the euro zone deposit mechanism to 2.5%.In addition, the market also predicts that the possibility of the European Central Bank will start to cut interest rates at 90%in the first quarter of next year, and just three weeks ago, people almost did not consider this situation.

Although the European Central Bank's policy makers are still warning the threat of inflation, they are increasingly acknowledged that they may not need to further increase the interest rate of the deposit mechanism to more than 4%.ISABEL SCHNABEL, who is regarded as one of the most eagle committee members of the European Central Bank, recently said that the decline in inflation is "significant and encouraged."

Gareth Isaac, head of the investment portfolio of Jingshun Multi -Sushi departments, said: "In the past 12 months, the European economy has been steadily deteriorating with the tightening of the financial environment." He predicts that the euro zone's labor market will be softened next year, "the European Central Bank has provided it in the European Central Bank of China in it.The support of inflation fell to the target level to start sharply cutting interest rate cuts. "

Martins Kazaks, a member of the European Central Bank Management Committee, said that although there is no need to cut interest rates in the first half of 2024, if "price stability risk changes", the policy decision may change.Last week, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the European Central Bank Management Committee, said that unless an accident occurred, the European Central Bank would not further raise interest rates.

According to the data released last week, the inflation rate in the euro zone fell from 2.9%in October to 2.4%in October, and below 2.7%of the general expectations of economists.This is the target level of the 2%closest to the European Central Bank since mid -2021.At the same time, economic data shows further weak signs.Data show that although the final value of Markit's comprehensive PMI in the euro zone was 47.6, which was better than the market expectations of 47.1, it was still below 50.

Rating of interest rate cuts and heating global bonds continues

If traders are right, the European Central Bank will become the first major central bank to cut interest rates next year and will implement the most radical loose cycle.In addition, the market is currently expected that the Fed will start to start at interest at May next year, and the annual interest rate cut will reach 125 basis points. It is expected that the Bank of England will start from June next year.The fourth rate cut.

The interest rate market has bet, and the Fed of the Australian Reserve will start to cut interest rate cuts more than 75%from the middle of next year.Even last week said that the New Zealand Federal Reserve, which might have to raise interest rates next year, is now likely to cut interest rates by May next year.

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