Gold was like a rainbow in 2023,News information and has increased by more than 15% since the beginning of the yearIt has set a record high twice, which is unexpected in the background of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike.As the gold of non -interest -interest assets, the interest rate of up to 5.5%of the US dollars can still maintain strong, which is mainly promoted by huge diversified allocation.
The World Gold Association said that over 70 % of the interviewed the central bank expects that global gold reserves will increase in the next 12 months.The global central bank's purchase volume in 2022 reached 1136 tons, a record high, and the trend was still continuing in 2023.Recently, Goldman Sachs raised its gold price target of the next 3 months, 6 months and 12 months to $ 2065, $ 2,125 and $ 2175 per ounce.
"After two years of consolidation after the epidemic,The price of gold hit a record high twice in 2023: once in May, and the other in DecemberThe gold price tried to throw away the key resistance level of $ 2,000, and it had been sold many times in this resistance.At present, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates three times in 2024, and the price of gold is higher than this point.In view of the favorable macro background and too much technical indicators, the price of gold in 2024 will set a new record."FAWAD RAZAQZADA, a senior analyst at Jiasheng Group, told reporters," Our goals set for gold in 2024 are $ 2,200 and $ 2,360."
Multiple factors promote the gold price twice to set a record high
Over the past few years, high inflation has led to the sharp tightening of the global central bank interest rate policy.After the epidemic rose sharply a few years ago, gold was unable to rise.Due to the increase in bond yields, the price of gold is blocked.The 10 -year US debt yield rose from zero to 5%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding zero -income assets such as gold and silver.This has reached the real gold demand that has increased for hedge inflation for most of the time in 2021 and 2022.But things began to change later.
The global anti -inflation process starts slowly from mid -2022, and by 2023, many central banks including the Federal Reserve have reached the peak of interest rates.However, people still believe that interest rates will remain high for a long time, which also causes the price of gold to break through in May in May. At that time, the price of gold had briefly exceeded the record set in 2020.It then fell sharply from about $ 2081 to the October lows of $ 1810.
But by the fourth quarter of 2023, inflation and interest rates have been topped, and things have become clearer.The tone of the central banks of various countries began to change, from super hawk to less eagle, and eventually became a bit of pigeon before the end of the year.Global inflation pressure continues to weaken.Investors are expected to start at the end of the first quarter of 2024.This once again boosted the price of gold, and the price of gold rose by about 18%from the October lows. In early December, it reached a historical high of $ 2146, and then slightly fell.As of December 29, COMEX Gold Futures received $ 2071.8 per ounce.
"In other words, gold is supported by factors such as inflation and expected interest cutting expectations in 2023. These factors will continue to affect gold in early 2024."Laza told reporters, "Therefore, we expect that 2024 will be a strong year of gold."
It is worth mentioning that gold is denominated in the US dollar, which means that its price is often inversely proportional to the US dollar index.But in recent years, whenever the US dollar index has risen, gold has not fallen too much."And in 2023, the US dollar index fell, but gold did not properly rise. If the trend continued in the near future, even if the US dollar closed in 2024, gold may only fall slightly. This means that if 2024 is for the US dollar in 2024It is a year of loser, and gold may shine even more. "Lazaida said.
Recently, the US dollar has fallen sharply, and the US dollar index is approaching the 100 mark. On December 28, 2023, wandering around 100.5.Yang Aozheng, the chief market analyst of FXTM Fuluo, told reporters: "The situation where the US dollar index is lower than that of one wave has not changed. After breaking the 102 and 101 mark, the current support is at the level of 100.55 and 100.18. Looking forward to 2024In the first quarter, although the market had premature expectations for interest rate cuts, inflation falling is still a fact. The longing for interest rate cuts will continue to be strong, which is not conducive to the US dollar index and US debt yields.
In his opinion, after falling below the 100 mark, it supports the level of 99.58 below. This is also the front low in July 2023. At the low point of support or seeing obvious rebounds, if the rebound is lost again 99.58, the US dollar index is indexed again, the US dollar indexOr further fall to the 97 ~ 98 range.
Global central bank purchase funds will still be the key driving force
A key driver of gold is the ultra -conventional purchase volume of central banks from various countries. Geopolical conflicts have exacerbated the demand for diversified allocation, rather than holding only US dollar assets.This explains why the US dollar has less impact on gold in the past few years.
According to data from the World Gold Association, the demand of the central bank in 2023 has increased gold performance by 10%or more.The organization predicts that even if the central bank's gold purchase in 2024 will not reach the same high level as the previous two years, it will still exceed expectations. The purchase volume of more than 450 to 500 tons of gold will provide additional assistance for gold prices.
Juan Carlos Artigas, the person in charge of the World Gold Association, said in an exclusive interview with a reporter that gold still has a forward kinetic energy. More than 70 % of the interviewed the central bank expects that global gold reserves will increase in the next 12 months.Compared with developed markets, emerging markets are more likely to increase gold reserves, because the former's gold reserves are already at a relatively high level."Asian countries such as China, India, Singapore, and Bolivia in Latin America are the main forces to buy gold. In fact, they are buying gold vigorously all over the world.It is the first key issue that central banks of various countries consider when they are allocating gold. "
The central bank's allocation of gold mainly takes into account safety, liquidity and returns.Specifically, gold is regarded by the central bank as security assets and value preservation assets, because compared to other assets such as government bonds, gold performed more stable when facing credit risk;The price will not be distorted; in addition, although the return is not the main motivation for the central bank to buy gold, the golden compound yield rate of gold is about 7%in the past few decades, providing investors with a considerable return. Compared with stocks, compared to stocks.In terms of investment income, the performance of gold is also good, and the fluctuations of each unit's income are much smaller.
In addition to the needs of central banks in various countries, China is the largest gold consumer country in the world, followed by India and the United States.China's gold purchase volume often increases before the Lunar New Year. The 2024 Lunar New Year will come on February 10th. The previous month, in January, will be one of the busiest period for buying gold.
"The bullish trend of many years shows that gold is suitable for buying at dars. Therefore, traders will actively find buying opportunities after any significant decline. We set the goals set for Gold in 2024 to be $ 2,200 and $ 2,360."Laza Dada said.
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