Entering the last month of this 特快资讯year, the A -share market still performed weakly.
Today, the three major stock indexes fell more than 1%, and the two cities once exceeded 4,100 stocks. The decline in the afternoon has rebounded. The three major indexes have become popular.
Northern Fund once sold A shares over 10 billion yuan in nets, and now sold more than 6.1 billion yuan.
The continuous downturn in the market makes investors more pessimistic, but the market cannot permanently fall, and the rebound will definitely come.
In the latest monthly report, wellNow it is an opportunity for the stock market for 20 years, and it may only take a few months (the rebound will come).I don’t want to step on this wave of opportunities, decisively raise positions, willing to bear certain fluctuations and retreats, and be willing to maintain a higher positionEssence
The market is weaker than expected
In the latest monthly report, Li Bei pointed out that in November, the US economy was weakened, interest rates declined, US dollar weakened, RMB appreciated, global risk assets were strong, but the performance of Chinese stocks was far from expectations.The deviation mainly comes from:
First, although the US debt interest rate has declined sharply and the US dollar has continued to depreciate, it has not returned A shares in the north, but continues to sell.
Secondly, domestic stock funds are reduced, especially large stocks that have reduced cyclicals, and have increased their positions with small media science and technology stocks that are not highly related to the macroeconomic.
Regarding the reasons for foreign investment, Li Bei believes that there are 3 reasons for the continued flow of foreign capital:
1) Some foreign institutions, especially the configuration funds, have long positioning cycles.These configuration agencies have made decisions to reduce the proportion of Chinese assets a few months ago, but the implementation process needs to be continued for several months, and it has not yet been completed.Since the opening day of most funds at the end of the year, this kind of warehouse -adjustment behavior is concentrated at the end of the year.2) Some foreign investment believes that real estate sales have not yet rebounded, and house prices have not yet stabilized, suspecting the persistence of economic data recovery.3) The most important point is that near the Central Economic Work Conference, the meeting set the tone of several macroeconomic goals, was understood by various policy researchers in advance, and spread widely.At present, the market is unanimously recognized: 5%GDP growth rate, 3%deficit rate, and 1 trillion special Treasury bonds.The market believes that when the real estate downturn local governments are facing the pressure of debt, the central government does not show a clear decision to decide the trend and attitude of leverage, and the economy will definitely rest next year.
Central Finance will expand significantly next year
However, Li Bei thought,The market's concerns about policies are too concerned, and next year will also be a significant year for the central government.
Li Bei analyzed that half of the 1 trillion -year -old construction of government bonds issued at the end of this year was left to next year, and there were 1 trillion special government bonds.From the perspective of the narrow -minded central government's deficit, this year is 3.4%, and next year is 4.2%, which is significantly higher than this year.
At the same time, the policy financial instruments represented by PSL should also be at a trillion level, not in the deficit rate, and the leverage effect is far greater than that of ordinary national debt.
In addition, the 5%GDP goal itself explains the problem. To achieve this goal, a strong supporting policy must be required.
The impact of the three major projects or exceeded expectations
Li Bei pointed out that the three major projects will be the focus of economic policy development next year and the investment direction of financial policy. The three major projects are led by the village in the city, but the market is not expected to have high expectations based on past experience.
However, after investigation by Li Bei's team, from the current policy encouragement direction and the rules of some cities: regardless of the form of compensation, the subject of first -level development, the demolition policy, the land transfer and development arrangement, all of them have occurred.The change.This round will have several major characteristics: demolition is faster and easier, the project cycle is shortened, the policy -based funding leverage is larger, and the overall economy is higher.The actual impact will far exceed the expectations of the current market.
Li Bei believes that with the capital of PSL at the end of the year or early next year, the start of the village demolition in the city, and the number of house tickets is issued.In the first half of next year, you can see the rebound of real estate sales. The subsequent is the stability of house prices, the entry of the demand for watching, and then the upward cycle will open. At that time, most of the current market concerns will be resolved.
Now is the opportunity to meet in the stock market for 20 years
Looking forward to the stock market, Li Bei said,There is greater grasp that the next two years will be a bull market for the A -share market index.However, the market has fallen by 5%, becoming cheaper and higher cost -effective.
At present, the misunderstanding of policies in the market promotes emotions to go down steps, and promotes Chinese stock positions of domestic and overseas investors, especially the cyclical blue -chip stock positions, and then down the steps.Especially after three consecutive years of decline, at this time at the end of the year, the pressure of institutions' checkout assessments makes it easier for losses to stop losses, and it is not easy to do more.The market will appear more likely to fall.
However, it only takes less than a month, the new year is opened, the new assessment cycle is opened, and the various institutions represented by insurance are under the pressure of low interest rates, low credit spreads.Stocks increase the ratio of equity allocation.
Li Bei also believes,Now it is an opportunity for the stock market for 20 years, decisively raising the position, and is willing to bear certain fluctuations and retreats, and is willing to maintain a higher stock position.
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