In 2024,breaking news high inflation and high interest rates will restrict the economic growth of Europe, but the situation is expected to improve in the second half of the year.Dedicated by the actual wage growth, the labor market is still tight, and the EU's large -scale investment, domestic demand will be boosted.
In terms of politics, voters' preferences will continue to differentiate.This will lead to more complicated policy formulation and may give birth to some unstable ruling alliances.At the same time, because the government is unable to improve public services or reduce the pressure of living costs, the public's dissatisfaction with the government will deepen.
The carbon reduction efforts of European countries and reforms that protect consumers and enterprises from high energy prices will further impact the energy industry.Supporting investment and purchasing investment in electric vehicles will usher in steady growth, but reducing the efforts of dependence on China will have little effect.
Europe will usher in a weak growth period
In 2024, with the reduction of inflation pressure, the recovery of actual wage growth, and the stimulus of EU investment, domestic demand is expected to usher in a mild growth.Under the background of the tightening of monetary policy, we expect that at least in mid -2024, the interest rate of the euro zone will remain at a record high.The sluggish external environment (the global economic growth has slowed significantly, the demand for major European trading partners in the United States and China has weakened significantly), and strong economic growth will not come.We expect that the actual GDP growth rate in 2024 is 1.1%, which is only a slight rise compared to 2023.
The problem of debt sustainability has attracted attention again
The sustainability of public debt will emerge again, especially the countries with bleak growth prospects, heavy debt burdens, and no plan to make a financial rectification plan (such as Italy).Compared with in recent years, the government's debt repayment expenditure will occupy a greater budget share, which squeezes the government's room for investment in more effective projects.Under the background of new national security challenges and green transformation goals, the government needs to find new fiscal revenue to provide funds for policies and other policies.Some EU countries have begun taxes on excess profits of banks and energy companies.In addition, increasing taxes for wealthy class or foreigners has been supported by the public, but the actual effect is very small.
Political stability and policy advancement will face pressure
In 2024, political division will still be a major trend in European countries.The ruling parties of various countries are increasingly difficult to maintain a stable and effective major seat. The joint governing countries will have to rely on a larger multi -party agreement.The government's ability to formulate policies will also face many challenges, such as French minority governments, the loss of stability and internal fighting of the political situation in Germany and Austria, the recent dissolution of the Dutch coalition government, and the "suspended parliament" situation after the Spanish election.The increasing dissatisfaction of the public's political system may lead to the proposition of radical policy propositions of the right and left -wing party in the traditional middle right and middle -wing -wing parties, especially the immigration -related policy claims.
This trend will have an impact on policy formulation and election results.Political dualization will not only make the legislative process more complicated, but also make the government's establishment more difficult and give birth to a larger, but unstable multi -party alliance.The Belgian election in June 2024 is expected to be one of the examples.Right -wing forces may also emerge, especially in Austria -we expect Austrian's extremely right -wing parties to become one of the ruling parties after September 2024.The results of polls also show that the far -right party will get more seats in the European Parliament elections in June 2024.This result may affect the European Union's policy stance on issues such as immigration, climate change, and EU expansion.
The still severe economic situation will further magnify voters' disappointment with the government.Although the actual revenue resumes increase, the high energy prices and living costs that are high will still be the primary concern of the public.In 2024, the public's dissatisfaction with public services will continue.In the post -epidemic era, multinational governments have not been able to make substantial progress in improving medical services.European countries have different views on how to cope with the growing illegal immigrants and how to speed up green transformation. People in some countries even oppose the green policy launched by the government.In addition, there are continuous differences within each party, especially in the lack of clear consensus on Foreign policy issues such as Pakistan, "risks" in China, and long -term planning of Ukraine issues.
Green transformation is expected to make progress
Energy supply in Europe will accelerate the pace of decarburization.Under the dual promotion of energy safety and decarburization, many countries will have new renewable energy projects in use.A series of reforms aimed at simplifying permit procedures will make progress, and it will no longer become a major bottleneck for renewable energy construction projects.In 2024, with the gradual elimination of coal -fired power plants in the United Kingdom and France, coal consumption in Europe will continue to decline, thereby promoting the decline in overall European carbon emissions -although the decline has not yet reached the requirements of the target of net zero emissions.
In addition to the two situations, the EU's "risk" efforts will be very effective.Europe will increase its efforts to procure and process the key raw materials required for green transformation from outside China. Some resources of Africa and Latin America, as well as Canadian and Australian mining companies will benefit from it.The Anti -Subsidy Survey launched by the European Commission for Chinese electric vehicles will end at the end of 2024.We expect this survey will lead to tariffs on the EU's imports of Chinese imported cars, and then it may trigger China's countermeasures.Nevertheless, the European Union's trade and investment relationships with China are very close and will still maintain a large scale.
This report section is selected from the latest "Outlook of 2024 Europe" released by the economics think tank, you can click onLinkCheck the complete report.
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