2023-12-15,一刻资讯 Dongxing Securities released a research report in the banking industry, which pointed out that the government bond support social integration increased year-on-year, and credit demand continued to weaken.
The specific content of the report is as follows:
Event: On December 13, the central bank released social financial data in November.At the end of November, social merging increased by 9.4%year -on -year (the growth rate was+0.1PCT); the social merger growth rate decreased by 5bp to 8.56%after excluding government bonds.In November, social finances increased by 2.45 trillion, an increase of 455.6 billion more than the same period last year.At the end of November, M2 increased by 10%year -on -year, and M1 increased by 1.3%year -on -year.The specific comments are as follows: The issuance of government bond issuance has been accelerated, and the support of social integration has increased year -on -year.In November, the social finance increased by 2.45 trillion, an increase of 455.6 billion more than the same period last year.From a structural point of view, the main contribution of the year -on -year increase comes from government bonds.Government bond net financing of 1.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 499.2 billion year -on -year.In November, government bonds issued quantities, and the increased 1 trillion Treasury bonds launched the issuance, and the monthly Treasury bonds increased by over 560 billion yuan.In November, RMB loans increased by 1.111 trillion yuan, an increase of 44.7 billion less than the same period last year, and less than the same period of 20 or 21 years.The total amount of credit is weak, mainly because the physical prosperity is not high and the financing needs of financing are weak. It is more consistent with the physical condition reflected by the PMI index in November.In addition, the small increase in credit is also related to the existing loan part of the special reinsurance debt repayment.Considering that the Central Economic Working Conference is settled and positive, the signal of strong stable growth is released. At the same time, the fiscal policy will increase the effort. It is expected that infrastructure projects are expected to accelerate landing and will drive credit recovery at the beginning of next year.Other projects: (1) Net bond net financing of 133 billion yuan, an increase of 72.6 billion year -on -year.(2) stock financing was 35.9 billion yuan, 42.9 billion less than 42.9 billion.(3) Pure financing outside the table was 1.4 billion, an increase of 27.6 billion year -on -year.The total amount of credit in November was weak and the structure was weak.From the perspective of financial statistics, the growth of credit in November was increased by 1.09 trillion yuan in November, an increase of 105.8 billion year -on -year.From the perspective of departments: (1) Resident confidence is still yet to be repaired, and mortgage loans have continued to increase low.Resident loans added 292.5 billion yuan, which was at a low level in history. At the lower base of the same period last year, it increased by 29.8 billion, reflecting that the recovery of residential credit demand was still slow.Among them, residents' short loans increased by 59.4 billion, an increase of 6.9 billion year -on -year.The residents CICC increased 233.1 billion yuan, an increase of 22.8 billion year -on -year.In the context of reflecting the current unemployment rate and the downturn in the property market, residents' consumption and willingness to buy houses are insufficient.From the perspective of real estate sales data, the sales of the top 100 housing companies in November -4.1%month-on-month, a year-on-year-year-on-year decrease, still expanded from October.At present, the increase in the interest rate of stock mortgage loans helps to relieve the phenomenon of early mortgage compensation.The growth of mortgage loans mainly depends on the prosperity of real estate, and it still has to further observe the effect of policy joint efforts, including the promotion of the preservation and the stimulus policy of the sales side.(2) The company's medium and long -term loans have increased less year -on -year, and the demand for financing has weakened.Enterprise loans increased by 822.1 billion yuan, an increase of 61.6 billion year -on -year.Among them, the company's long -term loan increased by 446 billion yuan, an increase of 290.7 billion year -on -year; the weakening of the current financing demand for enterprises, and it was also related to banks to reserve infrastructure projects until the beginning of next year.Short loans increased by 170.5 billion yuan, an increase of 194.6 billion year -on -year; bill financing was 209.2 billion, a year -on -year 54.3 billion yuan.In the context of weak financing demand for physical enterprises, short loans and bills of bills continue to exist.The M1 growth continued to decline from the previous month, and the efficiency of capital activation was low.In November, M2 and M1 increased by 10%and 1.3%year -on -year, respectively, and the growth rates decreased by 0.3PCT and 0.6PCT respectively.The continued low operation of the M1 growth rate reflects the low efficiency of capital activation, and the production activity of enterprises is still yet to be improved.In November, RMB deposits increased by 2.53 trillion, an increase of 427.3 billion year -on -year.From the perspective of sub -items, fiscal deposits decreased by 329.3 billion, a year -on -year decrease of 38.8 billion; reflecting the acceleration of fiscal expenditure.Residents' deposits increased by 908.9 billion, a year -on -year increase of 1.34 trillion yuan; deposits of non -silver financial institutions increased by 1.57 trillion, an increase of 902 billion year -on -year; it may be related to the transfer of high yield assets such as financial management to financial management.Investment recommendations: In November, the total amount of credit and structure was weak.Residents have insufficient confidence, their willingness to consumption and house purchase is weak, and credit demand is slower.The enterprise side, banks' active smooth credit offering, short loans increase year -on -year; China -long loans have increased less year -on -year, or they are related to special recycling debt repayment of stock loans, as well as higher bases in the same period last year.With the cooperation of fiscal policies and monetary policy, economic recovery momentum is expected to gradually increase.Industry differentiation, preferably two main lines.At the moment when the policy continues and the continuous economic recovery is still yet to be observed, based on the judgment of the short -term industry fundamentals, long -term policy support, and regional development help small banks.Large banks and high -growth high -quality areas.Risk reminder: economic stalls have caused deterioration of asset quality; real estate companies' sales are sluggish or worsening financing causes a large area of risk; the capital market shock continues to affect collection.
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