Views of the securities firm | Investment strategy report of the building materials industry: cold to spring must come, thick snow contains new buds

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  2023-12-15,Current Affairs Wanlian Securities released a research report in the building materials industry, which states that the coldness must be in spring, and the thick snow contains new buds.

  The specific content of the report is as follows:

  Industry core view: After 2023, the economy has shown a weak recovery state since the epidemic, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment has maintained a high growth rate. However, the main indicators of the real estate industry still show a downward trend.The overall rendering of the background, but the overall restoration is less than expected due to the insufficient downstream demand.Looking forward to 2024, the December Central Political Bureau meeting pointed out that "next year, we must persist in steady progress, advancement, stability, and break first." The overall setting is more positive.It is expected that the relevant policies and measures that are growing in 2024 are expected to continue to advance, and the real estate industry policy is expected to be maintained. The three major projects with the reconstruction of urban villages and the construction of affordable housing as the core are expected to continue to land next year, as well as the central government's financial and leverage is expected to continue to promote continuous promotionThe construction of people's livelihood projects such as water conservancy infrastructure has been settled, supporting the growth of infrastructure investment, bringing a certain increase in the industry.The demand for renovation after the real estate industry has entered the stock era has gradually increased, which also provides support for the demand for the building materials industry.At present, the valuation of the building materials sector has been at a historic low, and some high -quality heads have a high dividend rate, and the investment safety pads have gradually increased.It is recommended to actively pay attention to ① Benefiting from the reconstruction of the village in the city, the construction of water conservancy infrastructure, and the demand for regional infrastructure to improve the relevant building materials stocks;Building materials stocks.Investment points: Real estate end: The completion end may be under pressure.(1) The completion of real estate in 2023 remained high, and sales continued to decline.Under the advancement of the policy of insurance, the overall end of the house has maintained a higher growth rate. However, due to the weak performance of the sales side, the financing side of the real estate enterprise has not improved significantly.Step.(2) The "three major projects" build a new model of the real estate industry, which is expected to bring demand increment.In the second half of 2023, many departments such as the Central Bank, the National Bank of China, and the Ministry of Natural Resources expressed their support to support the city reform.The first batch of urban villages included 21 large large cities. Our calculation results show that the area of villages in the city is expected to reach 970 million square meters, and the expected market growth in the coatings, pipes, and waterproof industries is 86, 65, and 10.5 billion yuan, respectively.(3) Looking forward to the real estate market in 2024, we believe that the start of the starting end or narrowing, and the year -on -year growth rate of the completion end may turn from positive and negative.In terms of starting end, from the perspective of real estate enterprises, the start -up data in 2024 is expected to continue the weakening trend, but at the low base of 2023, the decline in the year -on -year decrease is expected to narrow.The pressure of the downlink is relatively large. Considering that in recent years, the policy of "insurance diplomatic relations" has strongly supported the completion end, and the completion end is expected to be a forward and low trend.Infrastructure: Facal bonds are issued to favorable water conservancy construction, and infrastructure investment support is expected to stabilize.(1) Although the growth rate of infrastructure has slowed down, the overall is relatively high.From January to October 2023, the year-on-year growth rate of investment in broad infrastructure was 8.27%, and the year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding power) was 5.90%.(2) National fiscal plus leverage support infrastructure investment growth.The 23 -year special debt was basically issued, and the issuance of issuance in the second half of the year was significantly accelerated, and the investment was mainly concentrated in the infrastructure field.In 2024, the probability of the special debt in advance will be issued at a ratio of 60%, or can reach 2.28 trillion.(3) trillions of government bonds may drive water conservancy construction to relieve the pressure of slowing infrastructure.In October 2023, the Central Finance will issue a 2023 national debt of 1 trillion yuan in the fourth quarter of this year. It is mainly used for post -disaster recovery and reconstruction and flood control treatment. It is expected to be conducive to alleviating the pressure of local fiscal revenue and expenditure and promoting the transformation of infrastructure physical quantities.Conservative calculations, adding government bonds may drive more than 50 million tons of cement demand to increase, and at the same time, the demand for building materials such as waterproof and pipelines will increase.(4) Outlook in 2024:LooseThe national debt and special debt are forces, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment is supported.We believe that the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to gradually stabilize in the fourth quarter of 23 years, and it is expected to gradually rise in the first half of the 24 years to maintain a stable growth.Risk factors: The demand for downstream real estate is less than expected, the process of the reconstruction of the village in the city is not as good as expected, the consumer building materials industry channel transformation is not as good as expected, the industry concentration is not as good as expected, the growth rate of infrastructure investment is not as good as expected, the demand for old house renovation is not as good as expected, the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, and the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply.Data statistics deviations, etc.

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